The financial attribute of natural rubber price is

2022-06-19
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The financial attribute of natural rubber prices is the driving force behind price fluctuations. In 2012, the domestic and foreign commodity markets continued to move forward in difficulties. The economies of developed countries were deeply shackled by high unemployment and national debt crisis, while the economic growth rate of emerging developing countries gradually slowed down. The global economy still failed to get out of the depression after the 2008 financial tsunami. It seems that the expected economic recovery is still far away

under the treacherous economic situation, the price trend of natural rubber, as a traditional bulk commodity, has also become increasingly weak, which is specifically reflected in high inventory and sluggish downstream demand. In particular, the inventory in the bonded area has risen again after a short period of decline in the early stage, which has imposed pressure on the rubber price in the short term. Thailand, the world's largest rubber producer and exporter, has held a meeting with Indonesia and Malaysia this month, Agreed to jointly restrict the export of natural rubber to support the price of rubber

however, only from the perspective of restricting the supply of natural rubber, the expected effect can not be achieved in today's economic globalization, because the commodity attribute of natural rubber price is gradually weakening, while its financial attribute is becoming more and more prominent

the financial attribute of natural rubber price is relative to its commodity attribute. Generally speaking, the commodity price is determined by two inherent attributes, namely, the commodity attribute and the financial attribute of the price. Commodity attribute refers to the attribute that the commodity price is affected by the actual use value of the commodity and reflects the relationship between supply and demand of the commodity. The financial attribute of price can be defined as the relevant attribute that the commodity price changes due to factors other than its actual use value

the premise that the financial attribute of natural rubber price can exist is the commodity futures market. The standard contract, margin system and settlement system of commodity futures market constitute its inherent financial nature. At the same time, the price limit system, the forced closing position system and the daily debt free system, together with the margin system and the warehouse receipt financing function, constitute a credit system for the effective monetary financing in the futures market. With such a credit system and the function of promoting monetary accommodation, the commodity futures market has the basic attributes or characteristics of the financial market; The natural rubber period produced by trading in this market, such as the conditional yield strength, is often adopted σ 0.3 is the stress when 0.2% residual strain is generated (Fig. 1b), and the goods price naturally has the financial attribute

the intervention of speculative funds magnified the financial attribute of natural rubber prices. The trading of natural rubber by investment funds in the market is entirely for the purpose of capital profit. In addition to the basic conditions of natural rubber, its operation is often related to macro influencing factors, such as global economy, exchange rate changes, political events, etc. at the same time, the margin system and hedging mechanism of natural rubber futures market greatly facilitate the participation of speculative funds, And make it play a more powerful role in influencing prices. In this way, the price of natural rubber has established a close relationship with many other factors outside the fundamentals through the speculative participation of funds. Therefore, choosing a machine is not simply a matter of psychological considerations. Investment funds' participation in natural rubber futures and spot markets will introduce financial attributes into the price of natural rubber

therefore, we can conclude that most of the commodity attributes are related to the micro influencing factors of the commodity, the most important of which is the supply-demand relationship. The financial attributes are mostly related to macro factors, such as exchange rate, politics, economy and so on. The financial attributes and commodity attributes of natural rubber prices have an impact on natural rubber prices at the same time. The direction and size of their resultant forces determine the rising and falling trend and fluctuation range of prices

further analyze the impact of these two attributes on the price of natural rubber. The commodity attributes determine the benchmark level of the price of natural rubber. Therefore, such injection molding processes contribute to the stability of geometric dimensions. However, the price of rubber will not be equal to the price of ordinary crops or precious metals, because the price is mainly determined by the relationship between supply and demand. At the given price level, the financial attribute of natural rubber price plays a decisive role in the daily fluctuation of natural rubber price

the commodity attribute of natural rubber price is relatively easy to grasp. For example, in view of the weak trend of natural rubber price at this stage, Yunnan region of China has entered the cut-off period since this month, Hainan region will enter the cut-off period in the middle or end of December, and Vietnam and northern Thailand will enter the cut-off period at the end of January and early February next year. As an important natural rubber production region in the world, The arrival of the cut-off period indicates that the supply pressure of natural rubber has been relieved, which is conducive to the short-term stability of the price of natural rubber

however, the financial attribute of natural rubber price is very difficult to judge. In the case of asymmetric market information, everything from economy, politics to weather conditions can become a factor affecting the rise and fall of natural rubber price, and its volatility is more intense and disorderly than that of other bulk commodity prices. The main reasons are as follows:

first, the direction of speculative funds affecting natural rubber price cannot be judged. The financial attribute of natural rubber price comes from the participation of speculative funds. Due to the numerous focuses of speculative funds, and the strong subjectivity and randomness, it is difficult to analyze and predict the financial attributes of natural rubber prices. As a speculative fund, its main purpose of participating in the market is to use price fluctuations to achieve profits. In the process of speculation on different influencing factors, the fund exerts the influence of many factors on the price of natural rubber. The analysis and prediction of natural rubber price need to collect many aspects of information and process these information. At the same time, there are often deviations in the understanding of the same influencing factors by different capital subjects, and it is easy to show an irrational state when making subjective judgments, which makes it difficult to judge the change of natural rubber price with the normal logic level

secondly, the nature of the futures market determines the inevitability of natural rubber price fluctuations. Futures market is a typical zero sum game market. The profits each participant earns from the futures market are part of the losses of another investor. As one of the most favored varieties of speculative funds, Shanghai Jiao often becomes the main battlefield for all kinds of capital games. In the process of this game with the sole goal of defeating the other side, the margin system and short selling mechanism of the futures market have become the booster to enhance the intensity of the capital game, while the fundamental or macro situation of natural rubber is only an auxiliary subject of the capital game. Therefore, it is normal for the futures market that the price of natural rubber fluctuates greatly

finally, the price of natural rubber changes faster than the stable speed judged by the market. Influenced by the financial attribute, the price of natural rubber has always been changing rapidly. The financial attribute of price makes the change of rubber price become the common projection of the change of many influencing factors including the relationship between supply and demand to a certain extent. The global political, economic and other external environment itself is in a changeable process. The strong liquidity of speculative funds has caused the sharp rise and fall of natural rubber prices in the market. The market is often launched in a "Thunderbolt", and its high flexibility has caused the price of natural rubber to fluctuate violently in some periods

the financial attribute of natural rubber price increases more risks for natural rubber related production, processing and trading enterprises. Enterprises cannot pursue stable profits brought by stable production and sales. The violent fluctuation of natural rubber price often disrupts the normal business activities of enterprises. How to correctly grasp the financial attribute of natural rubber price and effectively avoid the risk caused by price fluctuation is a problem that the government and enterprises must consider

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